Wednesday, October 3, 2018

What is Georgetown's Population?

The City has two different population numbers which allows them to use the one that is most beneficial to them at any particular time. The two numbers are for 2017, 70,685 or 60,642. That is a difference of 10,043 or 14.2% to 16.6%. Quite a difference.

If they want to justify a budget that is growing at 10% annually over the last 10 years, they use the larger number because it also has a higher growth rate over the last 10 years. It is not clear when they use the lower number. Perhaps it is for some internal control mechanism.

The lower number is estimated by the City Planning Department and the larger number is estimated by the Census Bureau.

The City justifies these two estimates by noting "the City tracks both the Census release and Planning’s internal number because both are estimates and therefore imperfect. The true number is probably somewhere in the middle and we will be able to start the baseline over again at the next decennial count. The Planning department attempts to refine inputs on household count by using a smaller multiplier in our age restricted neighborhoods. The census is capturing migration data during a period of rapid growth. Both methods inform the overall picture."

The bottom line is that there is great uncertainty in the current population of Georgetown according to City and Census Bureau data!

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