Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Airport Ordinance Update






It is curious that no input was solicited from the citizens of Georgetown. Intentional or overlooked?

It would seem to the causal observer that citizens would be concerned that the airport operates legally, in a safe and efficient manner, and that proper rules of airport operation be established. Why were they not included in the update process?

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Unfunded Liability of Healthcare for Retirees (Updated)

It has recently been publicized that in addition to public pensions, the taxpayer is potentially on the hook to pay for retiree healthcare costs. Zerohedge

Other analysts are also raising the alarm about unfunded retiree healthcare costs. Mauldin Economics
Local governments often give retired police officers, firefighters, teachers, and other workers a pension plus healthcare benefits.
        That’s about to change. 
That’s on top of the estimated $1.1 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities they already had. In other words, this giant problem that no one knows how to solve is about to get 59% worse! 
Healthcare is expensive even in the best circumstances. Imagine your health insurer had promised to cover your medical expenses but hadn’t set aside any cash to pay for it. 
Remarkably, that’s exactly what has happened. Governments currently disclose their retiree healthcare liabilities only in footnotes to their financial statements. Many have saved little to no money to cover those future expenses. 
Starting in 2018, the Governmental Accounting Standards Board—the source of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) for state and local governments—will force officials to record healthcare liabilities on their balance sheets. Pew Charitable Trusts estimates the national shortfall will add up to $645 billion. 
Or, more accurately, it’s going to look 59% worse. The healthcare shortfall isn’t new. What’s new is that local governments have to stop obscuring it.
 Fortunately, Georgetown does not have large unfunded liabilities for retirees healthcare, but, it bears watching. There are several aspects of the retiree healthcare plan are are worth noting.

1. The post-employment benefits are funded on a pay-as-you-go basis.

2. The City is under no obligation, statutory or otherwise, to offer post-employment benefits to any retirees or their dependents. Update -  Local Government Code 175 states the City has to allow retirees the choice to elect to participate in the health plan.  Council votes, during the budgetary process, whether or not to subsidize the premium.

3.  Retirees currently pay their own healthcare insurance premiums.

4. The City uses actuarial methods to determine current obligations and unfunded liabilities which use many "assumptions", such as the initial discount rate of 7.5%, inflation rate and payroll growth.

5. The actuarial methods result in an estimated obligation of $972,877 in 2016.

6. The unfunded liability as of December 31, 2015 is estimated to be $1,565,706 with an initial discount rate of 7.5% declining to 4.25% after 14 years.

From experience we know that the unfunded liability is much greater than reported if the 30yr bond interest rate were used. The City would have to provide additional information to calculate a realistic unfunded liability than is available in the 2016 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report.

All-in-all the retirement healthcare costs for Georgetown do not seem to be currently a big issue. However, given the rate that healthcare costs are rising in this country, the unfunded liabilities need to be tracked to assure they do not become a problem.


The unfunded healthcare liabilities accrued by the school district and county also need to be examined as they also impact our tax bill.

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Affordable Housing Issues

The Low Income Housing Tax Credit was created by the 1986 tax reform bill. This $9 billion credit masquerades as an antipoverty program, but it mainly subsidizes developers, investors and the financial industry. It is also a ripe source of fraud.

Georgetown has three approved tax credit developments. The one next to Catfish Parlor on Williams Drive has commenced construction.

The Wall Street Journal had a recent article describing the tax credit program and some of the issues associated with it.
To stimulate low-income housing construction, the federal government allots a share of tax credits to the states, which dole them out to selected developers. The credits cover part of the construction costs of multifamily housing projects. The developers must cap rents for a share of the units, so the benefits of the tax credit are meant to flow to tenants in the form of lower rents. Yet the developers usually sell the credits to banks and investors, often using syndication companies as intermediaries. The investors, developers and middlemen—not poor families—end up grabbing most of the benefits.
Gregory Burge of the University of Oklahoma estimated in a 2010 study that the value of the rent savings for tenants was a mere 35% of the value of the tax benefits going to developers. 
 The housing credit is also a prime target for abuse. Earlier this year a National Public Radio reporter profiled a Miami-area business that stole $34 million from 14 low-income-credit housing projects by submitting inflated construction cost data to the government. Another Miami company discussed by NPR stole $4 million from four projects by the same method.
This brings up an interesting question. Has the Texas tax credit program been audited to ascertain that the funds are being spent consistent with the program requirements?

Even though it is not Georgetown's responsibility, the city should watch the tax credit developments closely for any signs of fraud. After all, it is our money that is being allocated to the developers through tax credits. 

NPR profiled affordable housing earlier this year and found that the affordable housing program costs more, while it shelters fewer people.

And guess who administers this program? The IRS! That's a real confidence builder.

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Beware of the Affordable Housing Advocates

A group of affordable housing advocates have formed the Affordable Housing Coalition to pressure the City to expend resources to provide mechanisms to develop "affordable housing", whatever that is.

The City has already established a Housing Advisory Board with the following charter.

The purpose of the Housing Advisory Board is to ensure that the City has affordable housing for residents of all income levels. The Board is responsible for providing long-range housing research and policy recommendations with the housing element of the City’s comprehensive plan. The Board is also responsible for reviewing and making recommendations regarding housing developments that request City support for state and federal funding.
 The City also apparently established a permanent staff position of "housing coordinator". 

The City has recently approved three new developments using federal tax credits. The City currently has a larger percentage of tax credit developments than the surrounding cities and more developers are applying for city support.

It is only a matter of time until affordable housing advocates pressure the City into applying for HUD housing grants. This will be the kiss of death for city sovereignty with respect to property rights and city control of land use.

HUD will impose Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) on Georgetown as a condition for granting housing funds to the City.

AFFH gives FREE federal grant money to the cities. But what they don't tell you is that by taking the money, the city will be forced to gentrify your neighborhoods with low-income racially diverse high density housing.

1) HUD is imposing requirements that go far beyond what the 1968 Fair Housing Act demands

2) Moves high density low income (rental) housing to the neighborhoods

3) The new rule restricts private choice, local government authority, and the evolutionary history of American residential growth patterns

4) HUD grantees must consider statistical data such as education and transportation that are only remotely related to housing
 
5) Communities threatened with huge legal expenses from allegations by HUD and Civil Rights groups

6) HUD requires racial analysis of demographic data that should instead be colorblind

All Georgetown citizens need to be vigilant and make sure the City does not get entangled with HUD grants.

There are many ways the City can encourage affordable housing that does not involve the Federal or State government. Those methods will be explored in a later post.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Another Hotel Initiated

A new Woodspring Suites, 118 Room, 4 Story Woodspring Suites Hotel on 1 lot, 2.14 acres has been approved for construction at 904 Rockmoor Dr. This is south of Leander Road next to I-35.


It will be interesting to learn the occupancy rate of the many hotels that are appearing in Georgetown. Of course Georgetown is the recipient of an occupancy tax which helps fund the city.

GEDCO's Sales Tax Revenue

As reported about a month ago, the Georgetown Economic Development Corporation (GEDCO), derives its revenue from a share of the sales tax that the state rebates to the city.

A review of their tax revenue to date was presented yesterday as part of their regular meeting. Here is the growth of their sales tax revenue for the first 10 months of each year over the last five years.


Since sales tax revenues are allocated to the city two months in arrears, the amounts shown are through July 31.

GEDCO will receive in excess of $1.5M by the time fiscal year 2017 is over.

Over the last five years, the sales taxes allocated to GEDCO have been growing at a compound annual rate of 8.53%.

Sunday, September 17, 2017

Pension Funds Analysis

Even though the pension fund that Georgetown and its employees invest in is relatively solvent, the bigger pension picture is that the under-funding of state and local employees pensions is going to result in massive financial dislocations across the U.S. sometime after the next recession.

John Mauldin, a professional money manager and financial consultant from Dallas, expects the crisis to occur within the next 7-10 years and there is nothing can be done to avoid a "war" between those who have been promised pensions and those who work, own property and pay taxes. John Mauldin

He points out that in Houston and other coastal cities their expenses are going to substantially increase due to rebuilding after Harvey, while at the same time their income will decrease. Property tax revenue will be greatly reduced due to the massive property damage and even sales tax revenue is likely to be reduced until businesses are able to rebuild.

This will put massive financial stress on the cities and county's ability to fund their pension systems. Politicians will not be able to raise taxes enough to compensate for the lost tax revenue.

Total unfunded liabilities in state and local pensions have roughly quintupled in the last decade. You read that right – not doubled, tripled or quadrupled: quintupled.
This has happened in a period of positive economic growth and significant growth in stocks, in which pension funds invest. 

The State of Kentucky’s unusually frank report regarding the state’s public pension liability sums up that state’s plight in one chart:


This shows explicitly the issue this blog has been pointing out and that is the unfunded liability of a pension fund depends on the assumed discount rate. The Texas Municipal Retirement System assumes a discount rate of 6.75%. Looking at the chart, the unfunded liability increases dramatically as assumed discount rates are reduced to a more realistic level, such as the 30 year treasury rate of 2.72%. The unfunded liability almost triples!

Although TMRS may be in better shape than the county or state pension funds, what happens when those neighboring jurisdictions begin to suffer from higher taxes, reduced services and financial angst?

But wait, it gets still worse. (Do you see a trend here?) Many state and local governments have actually 100% funded their pension plans. Some states and local governments have even over funded them – assuming they get their projected returns. What that really means is that the unfunded liabilities are more concentrated, and they show up in unlikely places. You think Texas is doing well? Look at some of our cities and weep. Look, too, at other seemingly semi-prosperous cities all over the country. Do you think the suburbs of Dallas will want to see their taxes increased to help out the city? If you do, I may have a bridge to sell you – unless you would rather have oceanfront properties in Arizona.
This issue is going to set neighbor against neighbor and retirees against taxpayers. It will become one of the most heated battles of my lifetime.
And there is nothing more local than police and firefighters and teachers seeing their pensions cut because the money isn’t there. Tax increases of up to 100% are going to become commonplace. But even these new revenues won’t be enough… because we will be acting with too little, too late.
This is the core problem. Our political system gives some people incentives to make unrealistic promises while also absolving them of liability for doing so. It also places the costs of those must-break promises on innocent parties, i.e. the retirees who did their jobs and rightly expect the compensation they were told they would receive.
So at its heart the pension crisis is really not a financial problem. It’s a moral and ethical problem of making and breaking promises that profoundly impact people’s lives. Our culture puts a high value on integrity: doing what you said you would do.
Read the entire article. It is a wake up call to all of us!

Friday, September 15, 2017

Marker for GoGeo Bus Ridership

The city of Georgetown initiated a new bus service on August 21 with the expectation of attracting 30,000 riders in the first year. This post will serve as a marker to refer to in one year to assess the actual ridership.

Every estimate made by a government entity about transit ridership has been woefully optimistic. Recall that Austin projected their rail ridership to be 6900 daily and actual experience has shown that 2900 use the train on average.

The new service is already experiencing issues with use by handicapped people. Under the CARTS system, transportation was provided door-to-door with a simple phone call. GoGeo requires paperwork to be filled out and approved and subsequently far fewer handicapped people are using GoGeo than were using CARTS.

The city initiated this service with federal mass-transit funds and a $600,000 grant over three years from the Georgetown Health Foundation. After three years the city will have to fund the Georgetown Health Foundation share if the service meets its performance metrics for continuation.

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Electronic Election Results are Subject to Manipulation

Voters need to be concerned that election results can be manipulated to favor a particular candidate when the county relies on electronic voting machines. Washington Times

Andrew Appel, a professor at Princeton University, said it would be easy to write a program that cheats on election results and deletes evidence of the hack as soon as the results are reported.    
The analysts didn’t point to any specific election that they knew had been compromised, but they said hackers likely would leave fingerprints only if they wanted to be spotted and hurt confidence in the U.S. electoral system.
“To ignore the fact that the computers are completely hackable and to try to run elections, as some states do, where they entirely rely on the word of a computer program on who won is entirely irresponsible,” Mr. Appel said.
“There’s no perfect security; there’s only degrees of insecurity,” said Ronald Rivest, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 
He said hackers have myriad ways of attacking voting machines. “You don’t want to rest the election of the president on, ‘Maybe the Wi-Fi was turned on when it shouldn’t have been.’” 
He and two other computer security experts said bar codes on ballots and smartphones in voting locations could give hackers a chance to rewrite results in ways that couldn’t be traceable, short of sampling of ballots or hand recounts — and those work only in cases where there’s a paper trail.
Citizens need to demand that new voting machines be purchased for Williamson County that have the capability to conduct a paper audit trail. Experts agree that the only protection against fraud is paper.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

TMRS Investments Tracking Stock Market

The Texas Municipal Retirement System (TMRS) investments are growing as the stock market continues to make new highs. Here are the latest investment returns:


The 5 year performance is finally exceeding their assumed growth rate of 6 3/4% rate.

Equities or stocks have been the out performing asset classes for both the past 1 year and 5 year periods.

Real estate has also been doing well since many financial analysts believe real estate is in a bubble and is due for a correction.

More information and analysis can be found on the TMRS web site.

Friday, September 8, 2017

Renewable Energy Subsidies Cause Increased Electricity Prices

There is no free lunch, contrary to what some people believe. Renewable energy subsidies cause electricity prices to increase as coal and nuclear powered generating plants are decommissioned, other means must be developed to provide electricity when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine.
A newly released U.S. Department of Energy report on electricity markets and reliability makes it clear that renewable energy subsidies are contributing significantly to the increasing cost—and the decreasing reliability—of the national electric grid. The Hill
The electrical grid has been designed to distribute electricity with stable generating sources providing for the base electrical load. With the intermittentancy associated with renewable sources, instability in the grid becomes an increasingly important issue for the grid operator to deal with. 

Thus it is highly likely that we will see increasing costs to the end users to stabilize the transmission grid. It was pointed out in an earlier post that transmission costs are a separate item on our electric bill that has already increased this year.

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

More Georgetown Charity

As noted back on July 9, 2017, the city was planning on spending $491,500 on rehabbing Grace Heritage Church which had been given to the city in 1992.


The city has planned on issuing bonds in the amount of $199,000 to complete this task.

The church is being leased to Preservation Georgetown, a 501c(3), for less than $4,000 per year with the requirement that they be open for a few hours every week.


This is likely NOT the highest and best use of this facility. The city should sell the entire building and get it off the taxpayers backs. If Preservation Georgetown thinks it's important, they should cover the costs of rehabbing or buy it and move it.

The bottom line is the city is spending $1/2M, of which $199,000 is borrowed, to rehab a church that they rent to a charity for $4,000/year. That certainly looks like charitable giving by the city that is in addition to the $400,000 given through the Strategic Partnership for Community Services Advisory Board.

Monday, September 4, 2017

The City Thinks It's a Charity

The city thinks it's a charity, but, unfortunately you don't get to deduct the amount the city gives on your behalf from your Federal income tax bill unless you itemize deductions and deduct your property taxes. That assumes the money the city gives to charities comes from property tax revenue and not other revenue sources such as sales taxes, fees and electric or water charges.

The city has established a Strategic Partnership for Community Services Advisory Board. The charter for this board follows:

The Strategic Partnerships for Community Services Advisory Board makes recommendations to the City Council to further the purpose of City funding to the nonprofit sector of cultivating and sustaining partnerships with 501(c)3 organizations that strengthen the City’s key priorities in Public Safety, Transportation, Housing, Parks and Recreation, Veteran Services and issues of Safety Net. This Advisory Board participates in the grant funding process. They review and evaluate applications submitted to the City for social funding.
The budget for this board to fund community services is $400,000 this fiscal year. Here is a list of their proposed activites to fund:



Who knew our city government funded charities?



Airport Operations Continue to Increase

The operations at the Georgetown airport continue to increase as shown in the following graphic to be presented Tuesday to the Georgetown Transportation Advisory Board.


The math is somewhat fuzzy, but, calculations show, using city numbers, that total take offs and landings increased by 24.2% in July compared to a year earlier.

Total take offs and landings for this fiscal year have increased by 11.7%

Fuel dispensed show similar long term trends.


Even though there was a decrease in jet fuel dispensed in July, the total gallons sold for the fiscal year to date have increased 12.4%.

These results continue the trend noted back in January 2016, when almost 8,000(7977) take offs and landings were recorded. Now we are seeing over 10,000 operations per month.

So much for the city protestations that the airport is not being expanded. The operations and fuel sale numbers do not lie! The capacity of the Georgetown airport is definitely being expanded!

Saturday, September 2, 2017

Rail Doesn't Work - Again!

Citizens of Georgetown were lucky that Union Pacific would not let Lone Star Rail use their tracks, or, we would eventually be suffering the same fate as the Austin and other taxpayers with respect to Metrorail, only at a much greater cost.Statesman


As for the original $60 million projection (or $90 million with the cars), the cost of getting MetroRail up and running grew to what the agency eventually acknowledged was $140 million, for a lot of reasons. The cars cost $36 million rather than $30 million. The agency had to add an expensive rail bridge over an intersecting Union Pacific rail line. And the original track control systems turned out to be more complex and expensive than expected.
Ridership projections have also been wildly optimistic. They promised 6,900 riders per day by 2017 and here we are.
They got ridership up to that initial 2,000 a day projection, then, with further tweaks, to the 2,500 to 3,000 a day level. 
That is basically where ridership still sits. The weekday average boardings between July 2016 and this June was 2,900 a day, most of them commuters making two boardings each day. 
Sharp-eyed readers will note that is a smidgen below the original 2017 projection. In fact, it is about 42 percent of the projection. 
Read the entire article to fully appreciate how our politicians and rail advocates "lie" to us, the taxpayers, about the cost and ridership of rail systems.

We must guard against any more costly rail transportation systems being foisted on us, no matter what studies like the MoKan corridor promise.

MoKan Corridor Study

What is MoKan and where is it one might ask? It is the old Missouri - Kansas railroad right-of-way that runs from Georgetown into Austin. Lone Star Rail was going to use part of that 28 mile corridor for their track.


Since Lone Star Rail was cancelled last year, the Capitol Area Metropolitan Planning Organization, CAMPO, has been scheming on how to use that old railroad right-of-way.

CAMPO has awarded Round Rock $2M federal dollars to conduct a study on potential uses. According to the Round Rock web site, the RFP for the study has not been issued, but, it is expected this year.

Here is a list of potential uses of the corridor identified by TxDot in a previous study.



Not many people are enamoured with most of the potential uses, except maybe for the hike and bike trail.

The Georgetown Transportation Department staff has been involved on an on-going basis with these activities. The Mayor is the official Georgetown representative on the CAMPO board.

It seems like it is time for an update on this study activity as well as an update on the results of the Austin Area Research Organization to which Georgetown contributed $5K.

Ask your council person to let you know what is going on with the MoKan study and the AARO study.