Limits of Wind & Solar Generated Electricity

There seems to be actual limits to the practicable application of wind and solar energy. In addition to the South Australia blackout discussed in a previous post, Hawaii has stopped net metering (giving homeowners credit for the retail cost of electricity, when electricity is sold to the grid) and phased out subsidies for renewable energy. California is on the edge of an electricity crisis because they have and are closing fossil fuel and nuclear plants and now find themselves unable to import sufficient stable power from other states. California Grid Crisis

An excellent analysis on the limits of renewable energy is presented by Gail Tverberg on her blog.  Several of her key conclusions follow:

Issue 1. Grid issues become a problem at low levels of intermittent electricity penetration.

Issue 2. The apparent “lid” on intermittent electricity at 10% to 15% of total electricity consumption is caused by limits on operating reserves.

Issue 3. When there is no other workaround for excess intermittent electricity, it must be curtailed–that is, dumped rather than added to the grid.

Issue 4. When all costs are included, including grid costs and indirect costs, such as the need for additional storage, the cost of intermittent renewables tends to be very high.

Issue 5. The amount that electrical utilities are willing to pay for intermittent electricity is very low. 

Issue 6. When intermittent electricity is sold in competitive electricity markets (as it is in California, Texas, and Europe), it frequently leads to negative wholesale electricity prices. It also shaves the peaks off high prices at times of high demand.

Issue 7. Other parts of the world are also having problems with intermittent electricity.

Issue 8. The amount of subsidies provided to intermittent electricity is very high.

Few people have stopped to realize that intermittent electricity isn’t worth very much. It may even have negative value, when the cost of all of the adjustments needed to make it useful are considered.

Energy products are very different in “quality.” Intermittent electricity is of exceptionally low quality. The costs that intermittent electricity impose on the system need to be paid by someone else. This is a huge problem, especially as penetration levels start exceeding the 10% to 15% level that can be handled by operating reserves, and much more costly adjustments must be made to accommodate this energy. Even if wind turbines and solar panels could be produced for $0, it seems likely that the costs of working around the problems caused by intermittent electricity would be greater than the compensation that can be obtained to fix those problems.

Texas is at the level of 10-15% renewable energy generation.

The WSJ recently had an article touting Texas as the leader in wind and solar electricity generation, but, did not recognize two large problems; Instability in the grid caused by intermittent renewable electricity, and shutting of fossil fuel plants because they are uneconomical competing against subsidized renewables which will ultimately cause electricity prices to rise.

Tverberg notes that due to solar and wind subsidies that electrical costs in California are 45 percent higher than the national average, over 1/3 of California’s electric grid power for non-intermittent (also called “dispatchable”) electrical back-up must now be imported from other states, up from only 25 percent in 2010.

There are always unanticipated consequences that cost more money. Texas ratepayers can expect their rates to increase or suffer the consequences.