MRAP on the Way Out?

Police Chief Nero presented the history, current status, and a recommendation for moving forward with respect to the MRAP vehicle at a Council workshop on January 27, 2015.  It is clear that the Chief has been taking flak on deploying this vehicle as part of the Georgetown police.  The chief presented three options:

     1. Keep the MRAP and continuously evaluate
     2. Transfer MRAP and rely on mutual aid from other agencies
     3. Procure a civilian armored vehicle

The Chief presented information that 23 of 29 agencies that serve cities similar in size to Georgetown have armored vehicles.  Three of those 29 share the vehicle through a regional SWAT initiative.  This option was not presented by the Chief even though Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, and Williamson County currently own armored vehicles.  The Williamson County vehicle is actually based in Georgetown!

The Chief recommended the City start preparing to dispose of the vehicle and at the same time work with the Council to purchase a civilian armored vehicle.  The city Council basically agreed with this approach.  The cost will range from $180,000 to $250,000.

The Chief justified an armored vehicle for the following scenarios.
     - barricaded suspect(s)
     - high risk arrests (armed & dangerous)
     - officer/citizen rescue
     - active shooter
The city Council unanimously agreed with the need for an armored vehicle in these scenarios.

Policy and procedures have not been established for the MRAP or any armored vehicle.  The chief expects to deploy the armored vehicle to a standby location whenever, in his judgment, a high risk warrant is being served in addition to the scenarios mentioned above.

Stay tuned for further developments!

Stealth Pay Raise for the Fire Department

The second reading of an Ordinance creating "Assignment Pay" for selected Fire personnel is scheduled as item V, City Council Legislative Regular Agenda, on January 27, 2015.  According to the Ordinance, approximately 23 Fire personnel are eligible for "Assignment Pay" ranging from Paramedics to Fire Marshall and EMS Chief.  The "Assignment Pay" amounts begin at $200/month for Fire & Life Safety Specialists and tops out at $350/month for Fire Marshal and EMS Chief.  The personnel granted "Assignment Pay" are at the discretion of the Fire Chief without review or approval by the City Manager or designee.

This "Assignment Pay" adds about $80,400 to the annual payroll costs associated with the Fire budget. It is unclear if this additional pay causes increases in Health Insurance, Retirement, FICA, and Workman's Comp/Unemployment Insurance.

This looks like a 4%-8% pay raise for selected individuals hidden behind bureaucratic gobbledygook and is in addition to any cost of living raise granted by the Council.

New Road Bond Projects proposed

The Road Bond Committee has identified a reduced list of proposed projects to be submitted for citizen approval at the May 9 election.  The new proposal totals to $100M.  The entire proposal can be viewed here.  The new proposal will be presented at the next City Council workshop on January 27 at 3:30pm.  It is also on the agenda of the regular City Council as item M on the same date at 6:00pm.  The impact on the tax rate is not available yet, but, it will be approximately 1/2 the 15 to 20 cents per $100 of valuation estimated for the $220M bond package.

Here is the revised project list.

As a point of reference, the City has issued only about 1/3 of the road bonds approved in 2008 ($15.6M out of $44.15M).

At a time when thousands of workers are being laid off, here, it would seem prudent to reign in the spending by the City.

Let you Councilman know what you think!

Georgetown Police worried about image

Georgetown's two police captains recently hosted a "conversation with residents" at a local 7-Eleven after hearing about "fractured relations with the department".  They are concerned that the events at Ferguson, MO, New York City and other locations involving citizen deaths at the hands of police are bleeding down to the local police department level.  Judging the reaction of many people, as reported in the press, they were upset by the show of force including police in riot gear and the use of heavy armored military surplus vehicles.

Georgetown has it's own SWAT team and a MRAP(Mine Resistant Ambush Protected) vehicle which are very intimidating to law abiding citizens.

This image as projected by the Georgetown police is inconsistent with the City's stated objective of being a "City of Excellence".  "Cities of Excellence" do not use vehicles that make citizens afraid of their police.  What ever happened to the police motto of "protect and serve"?

Captains McLean and Waits would be well served, as well as Georgetown's citizens, by more conversations with the citizens.  Keep the lines of communications open so that citizens concerns can be addressed.

Chief Nero is updating the City Council on the MRAP vehicle at it's next workshop on January 27 at 3:30pm in Council Chambers.

Contact you city council member and let them know how you feel about the city using an MRAP vehicle.

Lone Star Rail cost estimates

It is extremely difficult to obtain good estimates of the Capital costs and the Operation and Maintenance costs when no Environmental Impact Study(EIS) or detailed design has been completed.  The EIS was initiated last fall and will not be complete until September 2017.

Capital costs of approximately $2 Billion for the passenger rail line and $1.16 Billion for relocation of the Union Pacific rail line will be funded primarily by: (1) yet-to-be-acquired grants from the Federal Government, (2) appropriations or grants from the Texas state government, and (3)the issuance of bonds by Lone Star Rail.  It is well understood the taxpayer will shoulder all of these unknown costs.

Approximately $50 Million dollars worth of parking and street and road improvements have been identified by the City of Georgetown around the proposed station.  They plan on issuing bonds to pay for these improvements.  At current bond rates and a typical 20 year duration bond, property taxes on the average $210,000 Georgetown home would increase by about $187 per year.  Remember that the current property tax bill levied by the City on the average home is about $911 annually.  Also, this estimate assumes that the entire bond costs would be paid by property owners whose property taxes are not frozen due to being over 65 years in age.

In addition to the City giving up its sovereignty for 36 years over the taxes in the proposed Transportation Increment Zone(TIZ), it is being asked to dedicate the property tax and sales tax increase, up to a maximum of 75% of the property tax increment to Lone Star Rail for Operation and Maintenance.

Lone Star Rail has estimated that Georgetown's share of annual Operation and Maintenance costs at full service would be $3.22 Million/year.  An analysis by the City shows the TIZ generated revenue will fall substantially short of the funds required.  This will result in the City redirecting funds from other programs, increasing property taxes or suffering a reduction in frequency of rail service to meet available funds.  It will likely be a combination of all three actions.

Lone Star Rail is idiotic for Georgetown

A presentation on Project Connect held in Sun City in 2013 left much to be desired.  The Vision Map showed a Lone Star rail terminal on the southeast side of Georgetown, and an express bus service at IH 35 and the Inner Loop.  Neither of these options serve Sun City or other residents along Williams Drive.

A quick look at census data shows that the growth in Georgetown is taking place west of IH 35.  For the years 2010 to 2013, the population west of IH 35 in zip codes 78628 and 78633 increased by about 6000.  In zip code 78626, east of IH 35, the population decreased about 550 over the same time period.  The city boundaries are somewhat smaller than the zip codes, but, it is rational to believe the same trends are occurring in the city.

It does not make good sense to build transportation systems where the growth is declining!  City Council should work with Project Connect to bring express bus service to Williams Drive, west of IH 35, that is where the growth is occurring.

With respect to Lone Star Rail, there is so much factual information available on why it is a bad idea, It is not understandable why it is still being considered.  Here are a few key points.

A Rasmussen Reports poll, August 2013, indicated “three-out-of-four Americans(74%) say they rarely or never use mass transit”.  Only 6% use mass transit every day or nearly every day.  I would be in the 74%.

As I reported to the Council in July, the capital costs associated with rail projects are grossly under estimated in the beginning.  In fact the numbers are so “squishy” right now, Lone Star management does not seem forth coming with an estimate for the costs to Georgetown.  As former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown wrote in a July 2013 column for the San Francisco Chronicle, “In the world of civic projects, the first budget is really just a down payment.  If people knew the real cost from the start, nothing would ever be approved.”

There is a long list of rail projects that have failed miserably to meet initial expectations.  They include the Honolulu rail, the Portland rail, San Jose rail, Denver rail and the list goes on.  They are all characterized by extensive cost over runs, under-estimates of ridership and ultimately reductions in scope or service to try and contain the budget deficit.

Another significant short coming of rail systems is they are not flexible.  Routes cannot easily be changed to accommodate shifts in population growth, whereas bus routes can be easily and economically changed.

Bus systems initial capital costs and operating costs are also much less than rail systems.

Rail system proponents never include in their initial estimates the capital costs to rebuild or upgrade the systems as they approach their 30-40 lifetime.  The Metrorail system in Washington DC is a prime example of trying to maintain a rail system to current safety standards when the budget is not available.  A 2009 crash caused by substandard maintenance led to the death of nine people.

It seems that the construction of a rail system is a gigantic wealth transfer scheme, first from the 74% of people who will not use it, and from the children and grand children of the future to pay for the never-ending escalating cost of such a project.  The beneficiaries are the riders, the land owners and businesses near the terminals and the construction and development firms. A more prudent approach would focus on providing an economical and flexible system using busses to accommodate changing circumstances.

With respect to financing such projects, it seems one should be very wary of the claims that funding can be provided through increased property valuations.  A 2010 study of the Austin Street Car project entitled  Zero Sum Game: The Austin Streetcar and Development, An analysis of the Capital  Market Research Report by Wendell Cox Consultancy

The overall conclusion: “The CMR report provides no basis to conclude that the streetcar will increase property values in the Austin area. Virtually all of the additional development attributed to the streetcar appears to be taken from elsewhere in the central area or metropolitan area. There is no evidence that the streetcar would materially increase total property values.”

Hang on to your wallet

The City Council was presented a report of results and recommendations by the Road Bond Committee on Tuesday, January 13, 2015.  The full report can be viewed on the city's website by looking under the workshop agenda for the subject date. http://agendas.georgetown.org/AttachmentViewer.aspx?AttachmentID=14412&ItemID=9227.

The proposed projects are listed in priority order in the following table.  The color coding indicates how the projects group to meet the objectives identified in the report.

The $220 million dollar price tag would be funded by bonds of 20 year duration, issued as project designs are completed over the next 15 to 20 years.  Bonds have to approved by the voters.

Councilmen Brainard, Fought, Hammerlun and Gonzales indicated a bond package of this size and scope was not politically or financially possible and that it needs to be scaled back.  Issuance of $220M worth of bonds over a 15 to 20 year period would result in a 15 to 20 cent increase in property taxes per $100 of assessed value. Remember the current City property tax rate is approximately 44 cents per $100 of assessed value and the debt service tax rate is 22 cents per $100 assessed value!

There seems to be a sense of "urgency" to put together a bond package that could be submitted to the Georgetown voters as part of the May 9 municipal election.  This subject is coming before the Council again in a workshop in two weeks, January 27.  The City staff goal is to have a final bond package available for Council approval at the February 10 Council meeting.  The final date for submission for inclusion on the May 9 ballot is February 24.  There is no clear requirement that dictates submission for the upcoming election and it would seem prudent to take adequate time to provide public input on the scope and timing of the projects to be included in a bond election.

The primary rationale for building these road projects over the next 15 to 20 years is that the City needs to anticipate the needs, as the City is projected by some, to grow to 100,000 population by 2025 and to 200,000 by 2040.  The basis for these projections is unclear, but, they greatly exceed the actual City growth over the past 10 years.  The City has grown at a compound annual rate of 3.3% over the past 10 years.  Projecting that growth forward results in a population of 72,000 in 2025 and 84,600 in 2030.  Therefore, it seems more realistic growth rates should be used when developing plans for road projects over the next 15-20 years.

Again, contact your Council person with your thoughts and recommendations.  It is your money!

The great California rail boondoggle

Here is a link to an article that succinctly describes all the economic problems with personal rail transportation.  http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/01/07/california-goes-full-boondoggle-on-train-project/

I have never seen so many conditional "ifs" for the success of any project!

"IF the internet doesn’t change the way people work, reducing both commuting and the demand for business travel, IF the giant project doesn’t mimic almost all similar projects and develop gigantic cost overruns that make a mockery of the initial cost elements, IF resourceful NIMBY groups and their lawyers don’t find too many endangered species in its path or otherwise tie it up in endless litigation, IF self driving cars don’t make rail travel obsolete, IF the fares aren’t so high even with subsidies that passengers shun it, and IF unlike almost all other passenger rail service in the U.S. it doesn’t lose buckets of money, this project could look like a smart move."

All of these conditions apply to Lone Star Rail!

Letter to Wilco Sun Published

The first blog entry, the letter to the Sun, was published in the paper yesterday, January 7.  It was doubtful that it would be published, but, satisfied that it was.  A broader audience will be informed about the ridiculous economic consequences of constructing and operating a commuter rail system.

Transportation Plan Update

The Georgetown Transportation Advisory Board is meeting Friday, January,9, 2015 (http://agendas.georgetown.org/). The Executive Summary of the Overall Transportation Plan Update is to be presented and discussed.  The Executive Summary can be viewed at the link.

There are several items to note:

1.  The following roads are outside the jurisdiction of the city: Interstate Highway 35, Business Highway 35 (Austin Avenue), State Highways 29 and 195, as well as the tolled State Highway 130, also Farm-to-Market Roads 971, 972 and 1460, as well as Ranch-to-Market roads 2243 (Leander Road) and 2338(Williams Drive).

2.  The last public meetings on the Transportation Plan were held in 2010.  Only 20 people attended the morning session and only four people attended the evening session.  Wake up people!  You have to participate if you want to have input into the road projects here in Georgetown!

The following transportation goals and objectives identified are:

· Implement improvements to the local road and traffic control system, including new thoroughfare linkages to enhance connectivity, improved and coordinated traffic signalization, standards for access management to enhance traffic flow and safety.

· Progress toward a functional, well-integrated, multi-modal transportation system that provides a variety of choices – bicycle, public transportation, and pedestrian – on a local and regional level.

· Reduce reliance on single-occupant automobile traffic by retrofitting bicycle lanes and sidewalks in underserved areas to enhance bicycle and pedestrian mobility; incorporating these facilities in new developments; and encouraging compact mixed-use and other “walkable” development types.

· Guide the future growth and development of the City toward a more balanced approach between employment and commercial centers, schools and other high traffic generators.

Notice that there is no "goal" to increase the capacity of existing roads and streets, other than through the "traffic control system", but there is a goal to reduce automobile traffic.  There are many other goals and objectives articulated in the Executive Summary that includes such things as considering social and environmental impacts.

The plan also recognizes the concept of an Activity Center that has been developed as part of the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization’s (CAMPO) 2035 Transportation Plan.  This Activity Center, with a 1-mile radius, is centered on the proposed Lone Star Rail station in the City's southeast quadrant.

A thorough review of the many interconnected plans is required to get a true picture of the planning for the future of Georgetown. The City's transportation plan ostensibly was developed with three primary components: (1) community input; (2) community needs; and (3) Traffic Demand Model.  The community input of 24 people five years ago seems woefully inadequate and the methods for identifying community needs were not specifically discussed in the Executive Summary.

The proposed thoroughfare plan is shown in the figure below.

This Executive Summary projects the tone of Agenda 21 with it's emphasis on non-transportation specific objectives, such as balancing employment and commercial centers.  The emphasis of such a plan should be on meeting the needs of the citizens in the most economically beneficial manner while respecting the property rights of land owners.

Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected

In case anyone missed it, here is a photo of the MRAP vehicle which is the latest addition to our police department.  It sure is going to make me feel safe with this monster rumbling through our city streets!

Lone Star Rail at City Council again

According to Mayor Dale Ross, the issue of Georgetown's continued participation in the Lone Star Rail District will likely be on the January 27, 2015 agenda.  Citizens of Georgetown need to contact their city council members to let them know their thoughts and feelings on the issue.  Their contact information is at the following link. https://government.georgetown.org/city-council/

Valuable information and insight can be gained by looking at the following presentation by Randal O'Toole from the CATO Institute on the Austin light rail proposal that was recently defeated at the polls. http://ti.org/pdfs/AustinLR.pdf  He is a nationally known expert on the economics of transit systems.  He points out that CAMPO, our Capitol Area Metropolitan Planning Organization, plans to spend more than 2/3 of our transportation funding on transit systems and only 25% on roads! Yet 99% of us use our personal vehicles on public roads for transportation.

It is insanity to lock up our property tax revenues in a Transit Reinvestment Zone(TIZ) forever.  We know circumstances change over time and funds from the TIZ will not be available as long as Lone Star Rail exists, even if it does not meet the needs of Georgetown residents.

Get involved!  Tell your councilman to untangle Georgetown from this money sink!

Pork Politics at TexRail

TexRail is a 27 mile commuter rail project being developed by the Fort Worth Transportation Authority that will operate on existing freight tracks.  Sound familiar?  The current cost estimate is $810 Million, other similar projects show that the costs will increase significantly by the time the first passenger pays their fare.  57.5% of the capital costs are funded by the Federal Government(our tax dollars) with the remainder funded by state and local government(more of our tax dollars).  Out of an estimated $75.8 Million dollar operating costs, the local and state taxpayers will have to fund approximately $67.5 Million, annually!  It is also projected that TexRail will not significantly reduce vehicle miles traveled per day. See all the gruesome details here. http://www.empowertexans.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/TexFail.pdf