A presentation on Project Connect held in Sun City in 2013 left much to be desired. The Vision Map showed a Lone Star rail
terminal on the southeast side of Georgetown ,
and an express bus service at IH 35 and the Inner Loop. Neither of these options serve Sun City or other residents along Williams Drive .
A quick look at census data shows that the growth in Georgetown is taking
place west of IH 35. For the years 2010
to 2013, the population west of IH 35 in zip codes 78628 and 78633 increased by
about 6000. In zip code 78626, east of
IH 35, the population decreased about 550 over the same time period. The city boundaries are somewhat
smaller than the zip codes, but, it is rational to believe the same trends are
occurring in the city.
It does not make good sense to build transportation systems
where the growth is declining! City
Council should work with Project Connect to bring express bus service to Williams Drive, west
of IH 35, that is where the growth is occurring.
With respect to Lone Star Rail, there is so much factual
information available on why it is a bad idea, It is not understandable why
it is still being considered. Here are a
few key points.
A Rasmussen Reports poll, August 2013, indicated
“three-out-of-four Americans(74%) say they rarely or never use mass
transit”. Only 6% use mass transit every
day or nearly every day. I would be in
the 74%.
As I reported to the Council in July, the
capital costs associated with rail projects are grossly under estimated in the
beginning. In fact the numbers are so
“squishy” right now, Lone Star management does not seem forth coming with an
estimate for the costs to Georgetown . As former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown
wrote in a July 2013 column for the San Francisco Chronicle, “In the world of
civic projects, the first budget is really just a down payment. If people knew the real cost from the start,
nothing would ever be approved.”
There is a long list of rail projects that have failed
miserably to meet initial expectations.
They include the Honolulu rail, the Portland rail, San Jose
rail, Denver
rail and the list goes on. They are all
characterized by extensive cost over runs, under-estimates of ridership and
ultimately reductions in scope or service to try and contain the budget
deficit.
Another significant short coming of rail systems is they are
not flexible. Routes cannot easily be
changed to accommodate shifts in population growth, whereas bus routes can be
easily and economically changed.
Bus systems initial capital costs and operating costs are
also much less than rail systems.
Rail system proponents never include in their initial
estimates the capital costs to rebuild or upgrade the systems as they approach
their 30-40 lifetime. The Metrorail
system in Washington DC
It seems that the construction of a rail system is a gigantic
wealth transfer scheme, first from the 74% of people who will not use it, and
from the children and grand children of the future to pay for the never-ending
escalating cost of such a project. The
beneficiaries are the riders, the land owners and businesses near the terminals
and the construction and development firms. A more prudent approach would focus
on providing an economical and flexible system using busses to accommodate
changing circumstances.
With respect to financing such projects, it seems one should
be very wary of the claims that funding can be provided through increased
property valuations. A 2010 study of the
Austin Street Car project entitled Zero
Sum Game: The Austin Streetcar and Development, An analysis of the Capital Market Research Report by Wendell Cox
Consultancy
The overall conclusion: “The CMR report provides no basis to
conclude that the streetcar will increase property values in the Austin area. Virtually
all of the additional development attributed to the streetcar appears to be
taken from elsewhere in the central area or metropolitan area. There is no evidence that the
streetcar would materially increase total property values.”
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